ign

Администрация Трампа блестяще взяла очередной барьер из серии «такого никогда раньше не было, а сейчас никого даже особо не удивляет».

Michael Caputo, в должности assistant secretary of public affairs in the Department of Health and Human Services в администрации Трампа с апреля месяца, совершенно реально болен. Я не знаю, были ли у него какие-то проблемы с самого начала, или он заболел уже на новой должности, но это не преувеличение, не метафора, не фигура речи и не наезд на Трампа, это просто очевидный медицинский факт, который он даже сам не отрицает.

“You understand that they’re going to have to kill me, and unfortunately, I think that’s where this is going,” Mr. Caputo, a Trump loyalist installed by the White House in April, told followers in a video he hosted live on his personal Facebook page. […]

Mr. Caputo on Sunday complained on Facebook that he was under siege by the media and said that his physical health was in question and his “mental health has definitely failed.”

“I don’t like being alone in Washington,” he said, describing “shadows on the ceiling in my apartment, there alone, shadows are so long.” He then ran through a series of conspiracy theories, culminating in a prediction that Mr. Trump will win re-election but his Democratic opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will refuse to concede. “And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin,” he said. “The drills that you’ve seen are nothing.” He added: “If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/politics/caputo-virus.html

И тем не менее, as of this writing, это один из ключевых членов Администрации по борьбе с эпидемией.

https://twitter.com/gabrielsnyder/status/1305557323247693825

U.S. manufacturers experience worst month since 2007-2009 Great Recession

На графике показан так называемый “ISM manufacturing index” (ISM = Institute for Supply Management). Значения индекса ниже 50 (красная горизонтальная черта) означает рецессию (в секторе промышленного производства). Последнее значение (на первое сентября) 47.8, чуть меньше предыдущего минимума (после рецессии) 48.0 в начале 2016 года. Полный текст доклада со всеми данными здесь, данные для приведенного графика взяты здесь.

Нынешнее падение индекса ISM продолжается с небольшими отскоками с максимального значения 60.8 в августе 2018 года.

Как и всегда с Трампом, самое интересное в этих цифрах, это не собственно их экономический аспект. Промышленное производство это 12.5% (по другим данным 11%) от американской экономики (для сравнения, здравоохранение примерно 19% и хайтек 7-10%). Можно долго спорить, насколько эти проценты реально отражают важность для будущего экономического развития и благосостояния, это вопрос непростой. Важно, что это именно то, что Трамп обещал исправить, то есть обеспечить рост промышленности, помимо общего роста экономики. Ну и результат, как и во всём другом.

Bloomberg, Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid (9 сентября, еще до последних данных ISM)

The inescapable irony is that Trump’s trade wars have helped create a scenario similar to one that helped get him elected in 2016. As a candidate, Trump benefited from the grinding and uneven recovery from the last recession. He also got a boost from a manufacturing slowdown that struck the Rust Belt just as he hit the stump promising a new era of protectionism.

The last time the U.S. logged two consecutive contractions in quarterly industrial production before this year was the first half of 2016. The country lost almost 30,000 manufacturing jobs that year as a collapse in oil prices hit the energy sector and filtered through manufacturing. Industrial regions such as western Pennsylvania saw a slowdown in shale oil projects and in sectors supplying them, such as steel. Yet none of those 2016 quarters saw as large a slump as the 3.1% fall in output recorded in the second quarter of this year.

Nationally, the U.S. has not yet seen a collapse in factory jobs. But in politics, timing and geography matter. Almost all of the gains in manufacturing employment came in the first two years of Trump’s presidency, and things have gone into reverse in swing states like Pennsylvania, which lost more than 8,000 manufacturing jobs in the first seven months of this year.

Trump is also more exposed politically to a manufacturing downturn than any Democratic rival. Nationally, manufacturing accounted for almost 12% of the jobs in counties that voted for Trump in 2016 vs. less than 7% in those that supported Hillary Clinton, says Mark Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. In battleground states the divergence is starker, with factory jobs accounting for more than 21% of employment in Trump counties. “This is the one thing he was going to deliver. And Democrats are not vulnerable at all because if things go south they are not responsible at all,” Muro says.

Очередной раз приходится повторять очевидное: Трамп это угроза всему миру, но в среднем по США он прежде всего вредит собственным избирателям.

Сегодня, 6 марта, Bureau of Economic Analysis (Department of Commerce) наконец-то с опозданием (вызванным январским shutdown’ом) подвёл итог за декабрь 2018 года, тем самым сделав доступными и данные по 2018 году в целом. Таким образом сегодня, в 775-й день пребывания Трамп в Белом Доме (даже не верится), уместно подвести итоги борьбы Трампа с торговым дефицитом, о котором он так любит рассуждать.

Итоги эти… так себе.

Помесячный график за 2017-2018, комментарии излишни:

Источник: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services

Годовой дефицит за последние 10 лет: $502 млрд в 2016, $552 млрд в 2017, $621 млрд в 2018 (на картине показано $610)

Источник: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/trump-set-to-become-100-billion-man-as-u-s-trade-gap-surges

Трампа даже как-то немного жалко. Кажется, еще не было в истории руководителя, способного в такой степени провалить все свои предвыборные обещания.

Понятно, что для трампистов слоган «Трамп выполняет обещания» это предмет веры, никак не зависящий от фактов.

Но всё-таки?

Washington Post: Trump promised to shrink the trade deficit. Instead it exploded

CNN: Trump promised to win on trade, but instead faces a record-high deficit

MarketWatch: Trade deficit soars to 10-year high in 2018, foiling Trump White House effort to rein it in

NY Times: Trade Deficit Soars to Record Level

Bloomberg: Tariff-Man Trump to Preside Over $100 Billion Jump in Trade Gap

Fox Business: US trade deficit jumps to 10-year high in 2018

WP сообщает детали:

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that – despite more than two years of President Trump’s “America First” policies – the United States last year posted a $891.2 billion merchandise trade deficit, the largest in the nation’s 243-year history.

The trade gap with China also hit a record $419 billion, underscoring the stakes for the president’s bid to reach a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping as soon as this month.

The department’s final 2018 trade report, which was delayed by the government shutdown, showed that the U.S. bought far more in foreign goods than it sold to customers in Europe, Asia, North America and Africa. The goods shortfall topped the 2006 record of $838.3 billion, set as the housing bubble was peaking, and marked the third consecutive year of rising deficits.

A broader measure of the nation’s trade performance, which includes the services sector, showed a narrower, but still large $621 billion deficit. That reflected a deterioration of more than $100 billion from the figure that Trump inherited from President Barack Obama.

It has been evident for months that the president was failing to shrink a trade gap that he calls “unsustainable” and that he says represents a massive transfer of wealth from Americans to foreigners. Over the past year, even as he imposed tariffs on foreign-made solar panels, washing machines, steel, aluminum and assorted goods from China, imports roared ahead of exports.

Ну и конечно ожидаемое:

That study also found that workers in Republican-leaning counties, especially in farm states, suffered the greatest losses from tariffs that U.S. trading partners imposed in retaliation for the president’s actions.